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Old 03-24-2008, 08:54 PM   #21 (permalink)
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Re: Are we heading for a global economic collapse?

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Originally Posted by 450SEL6.9
I think high-end real estate is arguably as overvalued as anything there is. These properties have gone up nearly in a straight line. Around 1999 and 2000, I saw a great villa in Cap Martin, France and a beautiful country home in Baden-Baden, Germany on a luxury properties website. I've been trying to find that site ever since. Rob, any ideas?
he he, well I just took that picture from - ONLY REGISTERED AND ACTIVATED USERS CAN SEE ALL LINKS - CLICK HERE TO REGISTER

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The Dow Jones has picked up 1,000 points from last Monday's lows and it is only about 1,700 points (or 12%) below its all-time high. The S&P is off about 15% only from its high. In the last recession, the S&P went from 1,550 to 770. I think this recession will be far worse, so I think something is seriously wrong with this market. It seems littered with people hell bent on telling us the problems have passed.
I agree with you Ray.
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Old 03-25-2008, 11:08 AM   #22 (permalink)
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Re: Are we heading for a global economic collapse?

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he he, well I just took that picture from - ONLY REGISTERED AND ACTIVATED USERS CAN SEE ALL LINKS - CLICK HERE TO REGISTER
I have been browsing that site for eight, nine-years. It organizes listings, but I think all properties link to the website of the property brokerage that has the listing. I was hoping that you knew which brokerage that picture came from.

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Sure, luxury car sales might be strong right now but that could change. Some people lost everything during the Asian economic crisis in 1997; property billionaires saw their fortunes wiped away -- a new Rolls-Royce is hardly going to be much comfort in that situation.
I think there is much more pain in property that analysts and the markets have not yet acknowledged. The Case-Shiller Index that has tracked U.S. property prices since '87 came out today. Prices fell 11.4% year-over-year.

Still, analysts are only forecasting a 15-20% drop in property prices. That would be a mild drop, considering the run-up from 2000 to 2005.

As you pointed out during the Asian Crisis, Rob, many property fortunes were wiped out because property prices plunged 50% and erased virtually all the price gains since the end of the first Gulf War. I don't see many forecasting that level of price drop for the U.S. and U.K.
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Old 04-18-2008, 12:21 PM   #23 (permalink)
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Re: Are we heading for a global economic collapse?

I'm sort of reviving this thread for another few days. It has always surprised me that there is not more interest in economic and finance issues on GCZ and CZ. Is everyone so rich that they can afford exotic cars even if the stock market tanks?

Looking at the stock market today gives me the jitters. The markets are a scant 10-12% from their all-time highs. Experts keep predicting this credit crisis is over and the recession is over before it has started. One analyst even said that recessions and bear markets are a thing of the past because economic theory and intervention are so advanced that nothing severely bad can happen again!

For all those invested in the market today, are you worried about a sudden, massive crash could seriously ruin your day?

I think the sharp recovery from March 17 to now is really concerning. The sheer number of people telling us the problems are over is even more alarming. It seems to be the stock market is trying to dig itself out of hole by digging down. Eventually it'll make itself a deeper crater. Personally, I think the odds of a 1929, 1987-style bloodbath on Wall Street has increased in the past month.

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