Harry Plopper

Isn't Gore a bit late to the game?

Even fore a VP.

****

OK, back to Obama.
It looks like Obama bubble has been burst.
Hillary camp was finally able to crack his shield a bit.

What now? Catch22.

If he hits back with same dirty tricks he denies himself as a change candidate (since he would use old dirty tricks by himself), if he doesn't hit back his shield could be completely destroyed, and Hillary could be back on track & even win the nomination (with a help of superdelegates).

Big dilemma for Obama camp.

Same thing with "Big States spell". Except his home state of Illinois Obama lost popular vote in all the others big states. If he loses PA as well, his credibility is in question. Is a candidate who has lost almost all big states suitable for a nominee? An even slight possibility not being able to win eg. Florida or even California in November is a huge handicap for Obama.

Another dilemma: change rhetoric is a one shot trick. So is the rock star fever. I doubt it would work in November as well. Now what? What else can he offer? His team better figure out that ASAP.

Regarding the polls: Obama vs McCain are as worthy as polls Clinton vs Obama 6 months ago. Nothing.

DNC will do the math, and nominate a candidate with best possible outcome in November. A county-by-county math. A cold math. They just can afford a fiasco of losing the WH again.

Curb Zone

 

450SEL6.9

Conventional wisdom says he is too late. However, the Dem rules say nothing about who can appear on a second ballot at a brokered convention. I think the candidate with the best chance of victory in Nov. is Gore. He is the one the Republicans will have most trouble with. Republican strategists acknowledge that.

McCain puts states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and perhaps even California in play. The Dems need to hold all three of those to win the W.H.

You're right about the big state problems for Obama. He lost by 10-points in Ohio and California. If he goes down by that margin in Pennsylvania (which is a must-win for Dems in Nov.), what then? He did barely win Missouri by carrying the big cities. Clinton does far better in rural, more centrist parts of most big states. That is what the Dems need in November. Gore and Kerry did not do well enough with rural voters!

I think at this stage both Clinton and Obama fracture the Democratic base. If Obama wins, where will Latinos and women voters (3 am, red phone, swing state women) go in November? If Clinton wins, where will the youth and black vote go?

Republicans don't often win the black vote or youth vote, so perhaps the bigger problem lies with shifting security moms and Latino voters, who can easily vote McCain, especially Latinos.

Harry Plopper

Exactly.

Quite some plus points for Hillary. But she has one big handicap: the Clinton surname, and all the baggage linked to it.

A poll a while ago showing vote migration was very interesting. It said only 10% of Obama voters would vote for McCain if facing Hillary in November, while almost 25% Hillary voters said they would vote McCain if facing Obama in November.

Meaning: Hillary voters will more likely to shift to McCain in November if Hillary is not on the ballot.

Yet the question remains will the youth & black voters still be motivated to attend November elections even if Obama is not on the ballot.

To keep dem- & and dem-indep base motivated Dems will probably be forced to offer "Dream ticket" in November: Clinton-Obama, or Obama-Clinton. Otherwise a part of voters will either stay at home, or vote for McCain.

Clinton-Obama seems more likely to me ... Keeping Obama for 2016 nomination.

Yes, a know "Dream ticket" is way to liberal average US can stand, but ... So were Al Gore & John Kerry, and they both performed quite well.

But just imagine: change & experience combined. A women, and an African-American together - a moment to make a history.

PR machine just has to create a hype it's a historical moment, a once-in-a-life-time opportunity for most of the voters.

Who doesn't won't to be take a part at making a history.

It could work ... McCain would be completely overshadowed (unless he takes Condi as VP!!!). And if he did that would be a double history making. A feast of American democracy.

450SEL6.9

That was the Pew Research poll, which is one of the better polling organizations out there. I think that 25% migration of Hillary supporters is mainly Latinos. There are states where Latin-American vs. African-American tensions exist. Also, McCain can win Latino support because of his stance on immigration. He bravely backed an immigration reform bill (with Ted Kennedy) that nearly ruined his career with his own party.

EnI, I might not agree with you on everything and we have certainly disagreed on a lot of issues in the past, but it is clear you know your U.S. politics. Therefore, I want to ask you this:
How do you think Bill and Hillary will leave the stage if Obama wins? Do you think they will make it very ugly or leave gracefully (to preserve their own standing with the party's establishment)?

I believe that the Clinton dynasty in the Democratic party is destroyed if Hillary loses. I believe they know that. Some people insist Bill and Hillary will bow out gracefully, so they don't burn their bridges within the party. Well, if she loses to a political rookie like Obama, it is apparent that their Democratic bridges collapsed on them. To me, a loss to Obama means no future for the Clintons in the party. That's why I think bowing gracefully is not an option for them.

Harry Plopper

The Clintons will retreat (publicly) in the case Hillary is not nominated. Gracefully? I doubt'. Gracefulness is not in Clintons' nature.

But will they become a nasty tornado - destroying the Party? I doubt it. She is still a senator after all. Hillary will support Obama in the case of his nomination. And so will Bill. No doubts about that. At least publicly.

But I won't be surprised if Bill or Hillary occasionally criticizes Obama (and indirectly praise McCain) after his nomination is confirmed. And secretly & indirectly help McCain at underground activities against Obama. Clintons are very Machiavellian, power-hungry people!

And be sure - if Obama loses in November - the Clintons will be very vocal saying "We told you this would happen!" And they influence will grow again.

Otherwise - in the case of Obama victory in November - the Cilnton era will be over, and their influence will start to decline. Although I'm sure both Bill & Hillary will remain very vocal - but the popularity will be gone. At least nation wide.

Just my 2 cents.

450SEL6.9

Surprised that this thread has gone quiet, despite the Reverend Wright racism flap and Obama's big response.

Where do you guys think this campaign is headed now?

Harry Plopper

^

IMO that was just a blip. Come & gone.

Economy will come first on the campaign agenda (again).

I also think Dem superdelegates will end the game on the Dem side even before PA primaries, or just after. So in a month a Dem nominee will be known. McCain has gained popularity now when inter-Dem battling is still going on. And that has to be stopped right away.

Obama has great chances to get the nomination but it's not over till is over. There is still a slight possibility superdelegates pick Hillary --- it all depends what the calculations will show. Dems are determined to win this November, so they will pick a candidate with best chances to win. And only complex electability cross-researches & cross-analyses can help them to make the final decision.

Let's wait for the next 4 weeks, and then the real battle McCain vs. X) can begin.

450SEL6.9

^^ I'm not so sure Rev. Wright will just be a blip for Obama. Polls are useless at this point, except to indicate changing trends. He has clearly trended down vs. McCain in swing states. Hillary now runs better than Obama in many critical states. I think he has lost support among white voters.

The Dem superdelegates really cannot end this before of after PA because they will look like hypocrites. They have been screaming about supporting who their districts support, so they can't just declare a winner before all the states have finished.

They better do something about Michigan or risk losing that to McCain in November. Some polls have McCain doing very well (ahead even) in Pennsylvannia. PA and MI are must-wins for any Dem.

450SEL6.9

As soon as I said that, Obama started trending back up again.

450SEL6.9

How come this thread just died all of a sudden?

It looks like Obama has wrapped it up tonight. A big win in North Carolina and he is very close in Indiana. I think Clinton's campaign is about to end.

Curb Zone