Choleric

Agreed big comeback, just goes to show though how unreliable "public opinion" polls are. Unfortunately you're right, the way the system is set up, Edwards appears to be done as well, we'll see though.

Clinton does seem to have found away to change her image in a way that seems to appeal to the women in NH.


Racism thing is interesting, I think if Obama were to get the nomination, race will play a large roll in it, despite how much people say we are over that. There are still a large amount of people who are blatantly racist and not to mention all those who are subconsciously/privately bigoted.

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Harry Plopper

What a night!

Looking forward to Feb 5th.

Obama is very good at form, Clinton at content. It depends what will be more important to the people in the next months. She is so boring & uninspiring, he is just all about big & nice words. They would be a great team ... He as the president - running the stage, she as the vice-president - pulling the strings in the background.

On the Republican site it's much more complicated ... No major favorite there. Very diverse candidates. No real motivation behind. GOP is not really on the roll in the USA.

But what a notice is Democrats (candidates & voters) are very very very motivated ... very interested in voting in Presidential Elections 2008. So are the Independent voters.

If an Independent candidate (eg. Bloomberg) enters the game in the Fall, GOP candidate is toasted. If not, the race will be much closer.

Also important: which issue will prevail ... terrorism, Iraq, economy issues, social issues etc.

Complicated international issues will give advantage to Clinton & McCain, recession coming in will boost Clinton & perhaps Romney, terrorist threats will enforce Giuliani & perhaps Clinton etc.

Still ... an Afro-American president, or a woman president still seems a very exotic matter for USA.

I'm shocked a Latino-Afro-American HIV-positive Muslim lesbian is not running for a president. That would be totally over the top.
Eg. in our presidential elections 2 months ago there was a woman running for the position ... and she was in a wheel chair ... suffering cerebral paralysis ... only being able to move her head & to speak ... even having a respirator installed in her throat ... just amazing.



PS: is was surprised the teary eyes of Hillary's helped her won some votes ... I thought she was toasted after seeing her crying. A crying Commander in chief??? OK .. perhaps better then the current one who has Jesus for the "senior adviser" on most issues.

450SEL6.9

The news networks thought that Obama won in a 96-percent white state like Iowa implies people everywhere will vote for a non-white candidate. They started backpedaling on it last night, finally citing the Bradley Effect, which is widely known.

The people who are privately bigoted probably outnumber the blatantly racist, but these people won't tell a pollster that I won't vote for a black candidate. The question is how many of these people there are outside the core Democratic, blue states. Related to that is how many people outside of the same blue states will not vote for a women, one who cries, no less. That is why I think Obama and Clinton are riskier choices than someone like an Edwards, Bayh, Gephardt or Gore. A ground-breaking candidate has to deal with an unknown factor out there and that is a risk. If the Dems think the stakes are so high this year, they shouldn't take more risk than needed. Just run the southern good ol' boy centrist Democrat and take the White House.

Eni, I disagree that an independent candidate would give the election to Clinton. Bloomberg is not a conservative. He is much closer ideologically to the Dems than the Republican. He is pro-gun control. Some of the better pollsters out there like Zogby think Bloomberg helps the Republicans. If he runs with an anti-war VP, the Dems should be the ones in trouble.

Who do guys think will be the tougher Dem for the Republicans to beat in Nov. in a straight fight (no independent candidate)?

Sunny

Iowa was a caucus, you can't really be a closet racist there unlike the secret ballot in NH primary, where you can be. But I don't think that is the reason Obama lost. I think it had more to do with McCain taking some independents away from Obama (probably cause the polls predicted Obama had a big lead, and they felt they could help McCain out who didn't have as a big lead over Romney).

Sunny

I think it is Obama. He attracts independents more than Clinton or Edwards if the first 2 states is anything to go by. Clinton has a litany of negatives and Edwards lacks the star power and the means (he opted for the federal matching funds, which puts him at a big disadvantage in the general election). But it all also depends on who the Republican candidates, with some one like McCain who attracts independents, Hillary probably will not fair too well, but if it is Huckabee, maybe.

450SEL6.9

I also agree Obama presents more trouble for the Republicans. If he's arguing for change, it's hard for a 60-something career politician Republican to stand up and say that I represent change. Hillary, we all know, energizes the Republican base. The Dems base might be more motivated this year, but if Hillary is the nominee, that could swing. Also, if Hillary wins, I think Bloomberg gets into the race.

Still, I think there are much safer candidates than Obama and Clinton, but the strongest candidates don't often get the Democratic nomination. Guys, what do you think about the Dems' nominating process, especially Super Tuesday?

Harry Plopper

It depends on what the US voters will focus: substance, or form.

If substance, then we'll probably see McCain vs. Clinton battle in November. If form, Obama & Huckabee are most possible candidates.

But after 8 years of Bush's wrong substance - or better: lack of substance, I guess US electorate body will focus more on substance this time.

I recall one of CNN's poll (after NH primaries) where people were asked if they were sick of media reports about likability, change, dynasty, race, gender - and if wanted to hear more about issues, solutions, programs. And the vast majority said they are sick & tired of the above mentioned stuff, and wanting to hear more about real views on issues & suggested solutions.

If this is the case, I doubt Obama will make it in the Dem primaries. He is just too much about words & form. And when the debates will starting to focus on substance - and they will after low-end candidates will drop out the race - the more experienced candidates will prevail.

Regarding November race: it will be a close result. Democrats are very motivated this time. And many moderate Republicans (the Bill Clinton non-haters) are attracted to Hillary. So are some independent voters.

Yet Obama & Hillary have one big advantage: he attracts young & educated independents (a lot of them first-voters) - because he is a refreshment to the presidential elections, she attracts mid-aged women & female babyboomers (her generation) - many of them also first-voter ... she represents the Clinton fans, and women power.

Regarding change ... Every Democratic candidate (or even the moderate Republican ones) will bring change to the US internal & foreign policies. Coming into position after 8 years of W. Just like Bush did after 8 years of Bill Clinton.

Therefore I think Democrats have better choice this year to win the elections in November.

Yet ...

Hillary carries a big burden of her past on her shoulders - she is a Clinton. And that's quite a disadvantage. Not her gender.

Obama ... he is a fresh chioce - he is black, he is a democrat, and his surname is not Clinton. A man of change? Not much more than any other candidate. C'mon he is a Senator, a black ex-lawyer ... Just like McCain & Hillary he is a part of the Washington elite. The only thing that connect him with the African-American population is his skin color.

Yes ... in November Obama has better chances - if he manages to persuade young & independent first-time-voters to go & get him a vote. But ... same case with Hillary - if she does the same with the women base.

Everything can change in a month. And a lot more till November. And ... it's not really over till it's really over.

So ... it's worthy to pay attention what the media & opinion makers will do in the next weeks & months. They are crucial for this race.

Obama fairy tale has ended, Clinton pre-domination as well.

Let's see the real fight now.



Republicans ... I'll comment on that later ...

450SEL6.9

Exactly what substance and experience does Hillary have? Obama had a great line about her in one of the debates. He said that her experience is one of the focal points of her campaign, but the White House records that would demonstrate exactly what experience she has have not been released. How are we to trust that she has relevant experience when we don't know about her experience as First Lady? Great argument from Obama. Gore was said to be a very powerful VP, so exactly what political hand did she play in the Clinton-Gore administration?

I don't think many moderate Republicans are attracted to Hillary at all. Where did you hear that? I for one have never read that any moderate Republicans are attracted to her in the least. She probably wouldn't get too many independents against a McCain either.

BTW, anyone think Obama is too liberal to be elected? I know it causes some Democrats to go crazy, but the idea of Super Tuesday was conceived to nominate electable centrist southern Democrats that can win in Nov. Super Tuesday is supposed to weed out elitist, Liberals from the northeastern block of blue states. Oops!

Sunny

Obama does much better with the center and independents than Hillary.

450SEL6.9

I think Obama is substantially more liberal than Hillary. Everyone says it's different this time, but independent voters generally vote for more centrist candidates. I think a lot of independents are looking at Obama because of they haven't paid extremely close attention yet and don't know his policy positions. I don't know why he will do well with the centre because he has a very liberal voting record.

Anyway, my point is that Super Tuesday is supposed to find electable southern Democrats. Instead it has produced three Liberals that lost badly in November. It's no wonder some Democrats are frustrated. They have tried this nominating experiment before. There is no need for another Massachusetts, New York, Minnesota Liberal to be on the ticket again.

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