450SEL6.9

Sponge Bob? He would have a virtual monopoly on the block-headed voted. There aren't too many of them, but I hear they have a powerful lobby group.

Anyway, I think the Republicans have a better chance than most give them credit for. Their candidates still poll quite well. If Fred Thompson can get his campaign going, he'll be tough. Many say he is Reagan-esque. The Republicans will like their chances more if Hillary Clinton is the nominee. I think everyone basically concedes that point. A Clinton nomination will energize the Republican base, which they need since some of the core base voters stayed away from the '06 election. Why would the Dems give the Republicans the candidate they they want to face?

The Democratic congress has very low approval ratings, so I don't know how much more confidence the voters have in the Dems. Even if Hillary can win, wouldn't you say she is a lot riskier choice? She is another east cost Liberal elitist, an unpopular one at that, and everyone acknowledges that she energizes the opponents.

Curb Zone

 

Choleric

NEW YORK (CNN) -- Mike Huckabee needed incredible turnout from self-described evangelical voters Thursday to win Iowa. Hillary Clinton was counting on capturing the women's vote to carry the day.

Huckabee succeeded, while Clinton did not.

So goes the tale of two very different presidential campaigns that appear to be on separate arcs: Huckabee up, Clinton down.

Two new front-runners for the 2008 race for the White House have emerged. For Republicans, it is Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor. For Democrats, it is Sen. Barack Obama.

With 95 percent of Republican precincts reporting, Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas, had the support of 34 percent of voters, compared to 25 percent for Romney. Fred Thompson had 13 percent, McCain had 13 percent and Ron Paul had 10 percent.

With all Democratic precincts reporting, Obama had the support of 38 percent of voters, compared to 30 percent for John Edwards and 29 percent for Hillary Clinton.

Now the Iowa campaign is over. No more stops in Cedar Rapids. No more overnights at the Des Moines Marriott. Fried Twinkies are a thing of the past.

It is on to New Hampshire as the race enters a new phase with some new players for the next five days. Then, Democrats and Republicans veer off and follow separate paths in pursuit of the presidency before reconnecting on the February 5 "Super Tuesday" primaries.

Most of the candidates will already be on the ground in the Granite State on Friday attending rallies, shaking hands, trying to capitalize on momentum or salvage a disappointing showing in Iowa.

Sens. Chris Dodd and Joe Biden have bowed out gracefully, while New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, Rep. Ron Paul and Rep. Duncan Hunter continue their quests after getting slaughtered in Iowa.

On Friday, two Republicans will rejoin the race. Sen. John McCain and Rudy Giuliani enter the picture after skipping Iowa. Prohibitive early-state favorite Mitt Romney comes to New Hampshire battered and bruised, but still very much alive due to his deep roots in the state and even deeper pockets.

The battle for New Hampshire appears to be shaping up between Romney and McCain, who beat then-Texas Gov. George Bush there in 2000. But it also remains to be seen how much momentum Huckabee can generate from his astonishing victory in Iowa.

Iowa is no New Hampshire.

The largely conservative libertarian New England state could prove to be rough sledding for the newfound champion of social conservatives.

In Iowa, entrance polls of caucus-goers showed that 3 out of every 5 Republicans were self-described born again or evangelical Christians. Huckabee beat Romney by better than 2-to-1 in this voting bloc. Among the rest of Iowa's Republican electorate, however, Huckabee finished a distant fourth behind Romney, McCain and Fred Thompson.

In New Hampshire, social conservatives are not as influential. This potentially opens the door for Romney to regain the upper hand or for McCain to repeat his 2000 victory.

The Arizona senator will find himself in a two-front battle: against Romney for the hearts and souls of GOP voters and against Obama for the state's unpredictable and sizable independent electorate.

Clinton suddenly finds herself looking at Obama's back and rethinking her strategy for winning the support of younger women. Iowa entrance polls showed that the New York senator was the top choice of women over 60, while Obama was strongly preferred by women between the ages of 18 to 59.

Another major challenge for Clinton will be how to weaken the Illinois senator without being accused of running a divisive, negative campaign. So far, voters have rejected this style of campaigning.

Meanwhile, Democrats John Edwards and Richardson, as well as Republican Thompson, are still alive with many contests to go.

A win Thursday would have been a major boost to Edwards' campaign, and the pressure is now on the former senator to deliver a victory in either labor-friendly Nevada or his birth state of South Carolina. With a distant fourth place finish in the Hawkeye State, Richardson has yet to demonstrate he is a top-tier candidate.

For Thompson, he must find a way to stay alive until the race turns south to what should be a more hospitable electorate. The question is, even if the actor and former Tennessee senator makes it to South Carolina on January 19, will he already have been written off?

And will Giuliani's "Big State" strategy, which starts with the January 29 Florida primary, prove to be successful?

The bottom line: The race has just begun, but for some it may almost be over. For others, it already is.

450SEL6.9

Cool, didn't think you would start a thread about it, Jeff. Sure is more convenient than sending PMs to you. Let's hope some other curbzone members join the discussion.

I don't think Ron Paul got slaughtered. He polled a respectable 10% and I think he might do even better in N.H. Paul is supposed to be a fringe candidate, so he didn't do too bad. Sadly I think my other favorite, Edwards, is done. There is no way he will win New Hampshire. He did badly amongst union voters, which is surprising.

Everyone in the media talks about change, but they should stop to consider how big a change some voters are being asked to make. How is a candidate like Clinton or Obama going to win the traditionally conservative south? Like it or not, some 527s will strategically air borderline sexist and racist ads in some states. Democrats themselves have called Obama by his full name, Barack Hussein Obama. The media talks about change and yet ignore the most important one - red states don't vote for Ivy-league, northeastern Liberal candidates in November. That needs to change for the Dems to win back the WH. Only Democrats from the south have won in recent memory.

Never mind that southern votes would be asked to vote for the first woman or black president, if Clinton or Obama are nominated. They first have to vote for a Democrat from New York or Illinois and they haven't done that. I'm not a southerner and I'm not even Caucasian, not even American. I'm just saying it is more pragmatic to go to the formula that has worked for the Democrats, instead of trying the Massachusetts, Minnesota and New York Liberals over and over.

Choleric

Sorry Ray, I've been busy I was going to reply to your PM, but this thread will do. I do agree it is sad that Edwards finished behind Obama, especially in state he really should have won. Ron paul did do very well especially since the media ignores him so much, can't wait to see what he can do from now on. It also saddens me that Biden and Dodd gave up so sudden, I really think Biden could have done well in New Hampshire.

As for who won Iowa, I am not too disappointed on the Democratic side, Obama will do well though I don't think he'll win in NH. Yes he may be Ivy-League and from a northern state, but I think he can really appeal to a lot of the religious middle of the road voters in the south, as well as a good amount of the large black population in many southern states.

Also if this were to be the final match-up (not likely, but possible), Huckabee vs. Obama. I believe Obama would man-handle Huckabee even stealing many southern and other traditionaly red states. Simply because Wall Street and other fiscal conservatives will not go near Huckabee with a ten-foot pole.

It will be intersting to see how this plays out, hopefully Edwards can pull a win out in New Hampshire, though the odds don't look to great for that. In the end though as long as Huckabee or Guliani don't get elected I'll be happy, those two are absolutely terrifying.

450SEL6.9

I don't really think Huckabee will get much further. The pundits don't seem to think he will. It's telling that the Dems have not attacked him because they want him nominated. I agree that he is the only Republican that any Democratic candidate can easily beat. However, I think the Republicans are smart with their nominees and don't repeat stupid nominating experiments that don't work, unlike the Democrats.

If Hillary wins NH she should be quite safe. I just hope McCain wins NH as well and takes the nomination. He does pretty well head-to-head with both Clinton and Obama. I do wonder if a Bloomberg candidacy will help the Republicans, but one poll I saw says he helps Clinton.

At this point my dream ticket might be Gore-Bloomberg! Like that will ever happen. I like them both, though I don't agree with all of their positions, especially gun control.

Choleric

Agreed. McCain loks to be the most likely nominee, especially if he wins NH.

Also I saw somewhere that Hagel and Bloomberg, were in Oklahoma together for something, that could be a posssible independent ticket...

Centurion

I've been on the lazy side when comes to the 2008 presidential election. The election is covered in the media here but not in such a great depth that allow to hear the candidates out and get to know what they stand for.

The election is not over yet but this little Iowa battle is very significant for Obama. 7th February is judgment day and will give us forecast of the election and where Obama truly stands on a national scale. Hilary isn't sitting 100% safe either since she is a woman but they both have good chances of making it into the white house. Maybe not head of office but as Vice President.

Choleric

MANCHESTER, New Hampshire (CNN) -- Sen. Hillary Clinton has won New Hampshire's Democratic primary, CNN projects.

Sen. John McCain easily won the Republican primary Tuesday, but Clinton and Barack Obama were locked in a tight race much of the night.

"Over the last week, I listened to you, and in the process I found my own voice," the New York senator told supporters.

"Now together, let's give America the kind of comeback that New Hampshire has just given me."

Clinton held a 2 to 3 point lead over Obama throughout most of the night, despite recent polls showing Obama 9 points ahead of the New York senator.

Supporters at her headquarters chanted "comeback kid" as the results came in.

Clinton's win comes off a disappointing third-place finish in Iowa last week.

Female voters and older voters seem to be playing in Clinton's favor, according to exit polls.

In Iowa, Clinton lost out to Obama among women 35 percent to 30 percent. It's a different story in New Hampshire, where 45 percent of female Democratic primary voters picked Clinton, compared to 36 percent who went for Obama.

Older voters are also overwhelmingly outnumbering younger voters, a proportion that is benefiting Clinton. Sixty-seven percent of Democratic primary voters are over the age of 40, and they are breaking heavily for Clinton over Obama.

The Republican results mark a resurgence for McCain, whose campaign was all but written off this summer.

McCain pinned his win on "one strategy" -- telling the people of New Hampshire what he believes.

"Tonight, we sure showed them what a comeback looks like," the Arizona senator said as supporters shouted, "Mac is back."

"When the pundits declared us finished, I told them, 'I'm going to New Hampshire where the voters don't let you make their decisions for them,' " he said. " 'I'm going to New Hampshire, and I'm going to tell people the truth.' "

With 64 percent of Republican precincts reporting, McCain had 37 percent of the vote. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was second with 32 percent, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, the winner of last week's Iowa GOP caucuses followed with 11 percent.

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani had 9 percent and Texas Rep. Ron Paul had 8 percent.

Edwards will finish third, CNN projects.

Recent polls showed Obama with a 9-point lead over Clinton. Supporters at her headquarters chanted "comeback kid" as the results came in.

Romney and Huckabee called McCain to congratulate him Tuesday night.

"I'll fight to be back in this state and others," Romney told supporters. Watch Romney congratulate McCain »

Huckabee, who earlier said a third-place finish would be "huge" for him, also promised to return to New Hampshire.

"After we secure the nomination, we've got to come back here and make sure we carry New Hampshire."

Voters who supported McCain and those who supported projected runner-up Romney differed significantly on what issues they feel are most important, exit polling shows. Watch McCain's supporters cheer him on »

Forty-six percent of those who supported McCain ranked the war in Iraq the most important. Meanwhile, voters who supported Romney overwhelmingly felt immigration was the most important issue.

McCain has been a staunch supporter of the war in Iraq, but co-sponsored comprehensive immigration reform legislation that drew the ire of many conservatives in his party. The legislation failed to pass Congress. Romney has been taking a tough stance on immigration.

McCain bested one-time Baptist minister Huckabee among New Hampshire voters who said a candidate's religious beliefs matter a great deal, according to CNN exit polls. While Huckabee won overwhelmingly among those voters in Iowa, in New Hampshire, 35 percent went to McCain while 31 percent went to Huckabee.

The religious voters made up 14 percent of all Republican primary voters in New Hampshire -- much less than in Iowa.

Voters turned out in higher-than-expected numbers Tuesday, with a sizable chunk making decisions on who to support at the last minute, according to early exit polls.

Eighteen percent of Republicans and 15 percent of Democrats said they picked their candidate on Election Day.

But the fate of the candidates could rest in the hands of New Hampshire independent voters, who make up about 40 percent of the electorate. A CNN-WMUR poll Sunday found independent voters split almost evenly between the parties this year.

New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch predicted a record turnout for the first-in-the-nation presidential primary. He said he expected half a million people to vote.

The governor's prediction followed record-breaking numbers in last week's Iowa Democratic and Republican caucuses.

New Hampshire Deputy Secretary of State Dave Scanlan said high turnout at polling stations forced the New Hampshire secretary of state's office to send more ballots to some polling locations, including Hampton Falls, Portsmouth, Keene, Hudson and Pelham.

Voting began in two hamlets just after midnight, hours before the rest of the state's polling places opened.

Asked Tuesday afternoon at a doughnut shop in Manchester whether he would consider himself the front-runner if he were to win in New Hampshire, Obama said, "I'm never a front-runner; I'm always the underdog."

Clinton of New York has tried to turn the tide by emphasizing her record as a "change agent," as a senator and as first lady.

She fought tears Monday as she described the stakes in the campaign at a forum with uncommitted voters in Portsmouth, calling it "one of the most important elections America has ever faced."

"This is very personal for me -- it's not just political, it's not just public," she said in response to a question about the stress of the campaign. "I see what's happening, and we have to reverse it."

Former President Clinton lashed out at the media coverage Monday night, saying Obama should be pressed more fully on Iraq and accusing the senator from Illinois of shifting his position to reflect changing attitudes on the war. Watch as the ex-president tears into Obama's record »

"And you took that speech you're now running on off your Web site in 2004. And there's no difference in your voting record and Hillary's ever since."

He added, "Give me a break. This whole thing is the biggest fairy tale I've ever seen."

Obama dismissed the former president's comments, saying "It seems like you guys have been reporting on me the entire year.

"I remember this summer when we were down 20 points, we were getting knocked around pretty good, and I didn't hear the Clinton camp complaining about how terrible the press was."

Meanwhile, Edwards sharpened his criticism of Clinton, blasting her for taking money from the pharmaceutical and defense interests the former trial lawyer routinely excoriates on the stump.

"I've never taken any money -- any money -- from a Washington lobbyist or a special interest PAC. She's continued to do that. She's taken more lobbyist money than any candidate," Edwards said Tuesday in Manchester.

Choleric

Personally, I am disappointed Edwards finished 3rd, but as he said in his speech, only less than 2% of America have had their say on who the next candidate is to be. Obama is also starting to grow on me, he is an excellent speaker, and has a solid message.

As for the republicans, I am glad to see Guiliani and Huckabee lose big, it is especially satisfying to see Ron Paul get nearly the same percentage as Guiliani.

450SEL6.9

Huge comeback for Clinton. I'm surprised, but good call Jeff. You said you didn't think Obama would take NH. CNN si talking about race and how respondents to polls have often lied to voters about racism, i.e. Tom Bradley Effect.

Hillary does well on the economy issue. If that looks like the top issue in November, that could be very good for her. After her teary moment, I think she will be running as a more human and more likeable campaign. I just don't know if that will turn her image around. It worked for Democratic women, but can it work outside of her core constituency? The fact is that a lot of Americans have disliked her for a long, long time and whether her new more personal message can change that is very questionable.

McCain takes NH again, but I don't know if he can capitalize on that momentum. I hope Republicans realize he is their strongest candidate. I don't think Huckabee or Giuliani are conservatives. However, I think it will be easier for him to beat Clinton than Obama.

Unfortunately, the time is ticking on the Edwards campaign.

Curb Zone